Issued at 5:00 a.m., 19 October 2016

“LAWIN” has intensified as it continues to move in the general direction of Northern Luzon.
Estimated rainfall amount is from moderate to heavy within the 700 km diameter of the Typhoon.
It is expected to intensify further before making landfall.
It is expected to make landfall over Cagayan Area by tomorrow early morning (Oct. 20) then will cross Apayao and Ilocos Norte.
Possible to exit PAR on Friday early morning(Oct. 21) or tomorrow evening (Oct. 20).
Sea travel is risky over the eastern seaboard of Southern Luzon and the northern and eastern seaboards of Samar.
Location of Eye/Center:
(as of 4:00 a.m.) 535 km East of Casiguran, Aurora
Coordinates: 16.1°N, 127.1°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of up to 205 kph near the center
and gustiness of up to 255 kph
Movement: Forecast to move West Northwest at 26 kph
Forecast Positions/Outlook:
24 Hour( Tomorrow morning):
30 km East of Tuguegarao, Cagayan(°17.6N, 122.0°E)
48 Hour(Friday morning):
420 km West Northwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte (OUTSIDE PAR)(20.0°N, 117.1°E)
72 Hour(Saturday morning):
805 km West Northwest of Basco, Batanes (OUTSIDE PAR)(23.9°N, 115.1°E)
96 Hour(Sunday morning):
925 km Northwest of Basco, Batanes (OUTSIDE PAR)(27.2°N, 116.7°E)
120 Hour(Monday morning):
1,010 km North of Basco, Batanes (OUTSIDE PAR)(29.5°N, 122.0°E)
TCWS Luzon Visayas Mindanao Impact of the wind
(61-120 kph Expected in 24 hours) Cagayan including Calayan Group of Islands, Isabela, Northern Aurora, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Apayao, Abra, Kalinga, Mt. Province, Ifugao, Benguet, Nueva Vizcaya and Qurino. · Light to Moderate damage to high risk structures;
· Very light to light damage to medium-risk structures;
· No damage to very light damage to low risk structures
· Unshielded, old dilapidated schoolhouses, makeshift shanties, and other structures of light materials are partially damaged or unroofed.
· A number of nipa and cogon houses may be partially or totally unroofed.
· Some old galvanized iron (G.I.) roofs may be peeled or blown off.
· Some wooden, old electric posts are tilted or downed.
· Some damage to poorly constructed signs/billboards
· In general, the winds may bring light to moderate damage to the exposed communities. Most banana plants, a few mango trees, ipil-ipil and similar types of trees are downed or broken.
· Some coconut trees may be tilted with few others broken.
· Rice and corn may be adversely affected.
Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some heavy-foliaged trees blown down.
Wave Height: (Open Sea) 4.1-14.0 meters Storm surge possible at coastal areas
(30-60 kph
Expected in
36 hours) Batanes group of Islands,La Union, Tarlac, Pangasinan, Nueva Ecija, Rest of Aurora, Zambales, Pampanga, Bulacan, Northern Quezon including Polillo Islands, Bataan, Rizal, Laguna, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes and Metro Manila
Very light or no damage to low risk structures,
Light damage to medium to high risk structures
Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged
Twigs of small trees may be broken.
Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
Wave Height: (Open Sea) 1.25-4.0 meters
The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next weather bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today.